When will Gordon go?
The Labour Conference is well underway, anticipated solidarity seems to be coming through. However the rift is still apparent, I guess fueled by media speculation over every little aspect that is coming out of conference.
David Milliband gave his speech, and the media hailed it as his leadership speech, the speech from the next leader, though really it was just his contribution to conference. We’ll see Gordon Brown stand at the box later in the conference, and it will be this speech which will be the true leadership speech, getting the Labour Party back on track with it’s members supporting their leader.
However with the possibility of the next General Election being an overwhelming defeat for the Labour Party, ministers and MPs are beginning to feel that their jobs are on the line, which of course they are. It is anticipated by most press polls that 8 of the Cabinet Ministers will lose their seats, which is an incredible prospect, and more so, the Conservatives will gain a 154 seat majority, which spells the loss of a huge number of Labour MPs.
How many members of the Cabinet will lose their Parliamentary seats?
None - 18/1
1-6 - 10/11
7-11 - 13/8
12-16 - 10/3
17-21 - 12/1
All 22 - 40/1
(available from Paddy Power)
So this could mean a number of things could occur over the next year or two. A general Election could be called. Gordon Brown might give in to media/public/opposition pressure to hold a General Election - don’t hold your breath.
When will the next General Election be?
2008 - 12/1
2009 - 15/8
2010 - 4/9
(available from Paddy Power)
More likely to happen, in my opinion, is that there will be a leadership contest. There are a number of events which could spark this, not least the factors currently affecting the financial sector. The event which could in fact spark the leadership contest is more likely to be the Glenrothes By-Election. Labour have suffered huge defeats at the last couple of By-Elections, and everything is pointing to the same kind of results at Glenrothes, which will see a loss of a 10000 plus majority.
Who will win the Glenrothes by-election?
SNP - 2/9
Labour - 11/4
Lib Dems - 40/1
Conservatives - 66/1
(available from Paddy Power)
So if Gordon Brown calls an Election, how safe is his own seat? Paddy Power think that his seat is quite safe, and is offering 1/80 for Gordon to keep his seat, or 16/1 that he will lose his seat.
If on the other hand, Gordon Brown’s leadership is successfully challenged, then who might be the next Labour Leader? There will be no surprises to find David Miliband taking up the top spot:
David Miliband - 2/1
Harriet Harman - 10/3
Jack Straw - 6/1
Alan Johnson - 6/1
James Purnell - 8/1
Ed Balls - 8/1
Jon Cruddas - 8/1
John Denham - 10/1
Hilary Benn - 16/1
Yvette Cooper - 16/1
A Burnham - 20/1
Ed Miliband - 20/1
If you think that Tony Blair could take back his old job, then there’s 250/1 available.
All odds correct at the time of writing, and are available direct from Paddy Power.
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