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Betting on TV shows - How to bet on the outcome of Reality TV shows

BETTING ON TV SHOWS - HOW TO BET ON THE OUTCOME OF REALITY TV SHOWS

Over the past few years or so reality TV shows have become increasingly popular and so has the betting surrounding such shows. These include X factor, Big Brother, I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here and various others. The reality TV show most popular as a betting medium is Big Brother, for which bookmakers create numerous markets. After the initial few weeks, odds compilers tend to adopt very firm opinions with regard to the betting markets and short priced favourites begin to dominate. However, such short priced favourites are by no means sure-fire betting propositions. In 2007, the twins, Amanda and Sam, were as short as 1/5 in the Big Brother betting on the final day, but were beaten by Brian, the second favourite. As with other types of betting, late money is often “informed” money, so it can pay to wait, even though this may mean taking a shorter price. Comparing the prices of online bookmakers can also be a worthwhile exercise, as the likes of Victor Chandler, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Stan James have different odds compilers who may adopt different attitudes to different contestants.

Evictions

Reality TV shows such as Big Brother or the X Factor have one of the housemates or contestants evicted or eliminated each week. Often, this is clear-cut as it is obvious who is the most disliked housemate or least talented performer. However, a certain amount of care is required when venturing into either the X factor betting or Big Brother betting “eviction” markets. In Big Brother, the rules are often varied from week to week, with one housemate being required to select the eviction nominees in some weeks. In this situation, it is not unusual for even the most disliked housemate to evade nomination, never mind eviction. A similar case springs to mind from X factor betting 2006, where the Scottish McDonald brothers were, frankly, appalling. However, they survived for so many weeks that it became something of a joke, apart from to those punters who had backed them to be voted off at a short price.

Reality TV Betting Risks

It is worth remembering that reality TV shows are produced predominantly as entertainment, not as a betting medium. Big Brother betting is an area of which to be particularly cautious, due to rule changes, e.g. double evictions, housemates simply quitting and walking out and additional housemates being added or previous evictees being reinstated. An important point which the majority of punters miss is that the manner in which the programme is edited can portray one or more housemates in a particular light, thus affecting the number of votes they receive.

Tips for Betting on Reality TV

Reality TV shows are, for the most part, a very poor betting medium as punters have little to go on other than educated guesses and intuition. A bet on X factor or Big Brother should only be contemplated if you feel you have something that gives you an “edge” over the layers. Inside information is the obvious one, but sadly, something to which few people are privy. In this light, it makes sense to look for events that look seriously overpriced. Obviously, the majority of such bets will be losers, but at bigger prices even the odd winner should result in a profit. For those punters who simply cannot resist getting involved in the minefield of reality TV, there are a few pointers which may be of assistance. A full knowledge and understanding of the rules of the show in question is absolutely essential to have any hope at all of successful betting. It is also fundamental to consider who is likely to be viewing and voting - try to see things from their perspective. Much of the X factor (amongst others) voting is done by teenage girls via text messages. This fact is maybe underestimated by the layers and may provide a profit-making opportunity. One final point is exactly how the elimination process works. For example, if two favourites are up for elimination / eviction, does the public make the final decision or the panel of judges?

All odds correct at time of writing. Please click here for the latest odds