A Look at Sports Betting systems

A LOOK AT SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS
The majority of sports punters seek some kind of system to help them gain an edge over the layers. Whilst some systems are undoubtedly worthy of investigation, others, despite having been in existence for years, are absolutely worthless. The following seeks to aid in differentiating between the two types.

N.B. The Following Sports Betting systems are designed to work (or not!) with standard UK bookmakers such as 888sport, Blue Square and Bet 365.

The Martingale System

At one stage or another in their gambling career, punters seem sure to discover a “sure fire” betting system that involves double the stake after each loss. This system, known has the Martingale, has existed for many years and has financially ruined many punters. It is fundamentally flawed as hopefully illustrated by the following example:

Bet 1: Stake £5 – Loser, Bet 2: Stake £10 – Loser, Bet 3: Stake £20 – Loser, Bet 4: Stake £40 – Loser, Bet 5: Stake £80 – Loser, Bet 6: Stake £160 – Loser, Bet 7: Stake £320 – Loser, Bet 8: Stake £640 – Loser, Bet 9: Stake £1280 – Loser, Bet 10: Stake £2560 – Loser, Bet 11: Stake £5120 – Loser, Bet 12: Stake £10240 – Loser,
Bet 13: Stake £20480 – Loser, Bet 14: Stake £40960 – Loser, Bet 15: Stake £81920 – Loser, Bet 16: Stake £163840 – Loser, Bet 17: Stake £327680 – Loser, etc.

The Martingale system is based on betting on even money chances. With unlimited resources, it is possible to win (eventually) using this system. However, this is a luxury few punters enjoy. Some punters have initial success with the Martingale, and having made consistent profits over a number of weeks, begin to believe that it is in fact foolproof. The fundamental flaw in the system is that it has no facility to withstand the long losing run, which every punter will encounter sooner or later. 6 consecutive losing bets (far from difficult to achieve) requires the next stake to be £320, with the prospect of winning £5. If the losing run extends to 17, the required stake for the next bet is £655360, substantially in excess of the payout (never mind stake) limits of the top bookmakers such as Ladbrokes, William Hill, Victor Chandler, Blue Square, Paddy Power etc. The Martingale system falls into the worthless category and one to leave well alone.

The Paroli System

The “Paroli” system is essentially the opposite of the Martingale, with stakes being doubled after a winner rather than after a loser. The advantage of this particular gambling system is that it does not require a large betting bank, lets profits run and cuts losses.

Money Management

The ultimate “Money Management” strategy is to bet more when winning and less when losing. However, there is no way of determining when a streak occurs until it ends. A simple way to achieve this is to use a positive progressive system The first bet is a series is a £20 winner. No progression is made at this stage. The next stake is still £20 and wins. The next bet is £30. The stake is now progressing, but a profit of £10 is retained. If the £30 bet wins, the next stake is £45. If it loses, the stake reverts to £20. A negative progression system involves increasing your bets after a loss.

Although generally referred to as betting systems, the above can be more accurately described as staking plans. Whichever a punter decides to use, they are doomed to failure. Most punters miss the point that some plans / systems appear to work as the take advantage of short-term fluctuations in probability. Having had a few wins, the punter is overtaken by greed, and coupled with his misconceived “perfect” system, starts to increase the stakes. Inevitably, it does not take long for the backer to return his winnings along with some more cash of his own, leaving layers like Boylesports, Stan James, 888sport etc. suitably contented.

Horse Racing Systems

There are many systems which do indeed work. These can be simple, based on one statistic such as “Back Sir Michael Stoute horses having their first run of the year,” or more complex such as the “All Weather Male with Good Recent Form” system.

Systems Failures
The predominant reason that systems fail is that the fundamental principles are flawed. A punter, having derived a system with unsound rules, “back fits” results to fit the system, the gambling equivalent of shooting an arrow at a tree, then painting a target around the arrow. Potentially profitable systems can also fail if a punter is unable to endure the inevitable losing run. Sensible money management is essential. Some systems can be exceedingly tedious to operate. The strike rate / profitability may be excellent, but the number of selections produced is very low and the punter simply gives up through boredom.

Free Horse Racing Systems
NEVER pay for a racing system! Punters will doubtless see “guaranteed” racing systems advertised on various Internet websites, often at exorbitant prices. Do not be tempted by the claims of these advertisements, as there are just as many worthwhile systems available on the Internet free of charge. These include such as the following, from the “FlatStats” website:

Back all 2nd favourites in Sellers and Claimers at Ascot, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Sandown and York
Sellers and claimers are low-class races which are not often run at the best courses. As a result, punters at these courses are not familiar with such races. Favourites (simply on the basis of being favourite) tend to attract money, with the result that the second-best is pushed out to a longer price than is strictly merited, offering a potential value bet. Strike rate 25%.

Back Horses who ran Yesterday and are Favourite today
Such horses are known to be fit, and fancied by connections. They tend to be somewhat ignored by punters and are often overpriced as a result. 40% strike rate.

All Weather Racing Systems

Back colts and geldings that last ran within 3 days. Must have won within the past 4 weeks and SP in single figures
Colts and gelding hold an advantage over fillies and mares. Insistence that a selection has won within 4 weeks demonstrates winning ability. A single figure SP ensures that the horse is fancied and not taking a big rise in class.35% strike rate

Back Colts who won within 7 days and are the favourite
Punters tend to underestimate the importance of a recent win, AW favourites are not tipped as widely by media pundits and tend to be less well-backed than their counterparts on turf. 48% strike rate.

All odds correct at time of writing. Please click here for the latest odds



    Related Articles:
  • Weighing the odds in Sports Betting
  • Where can I find the best sports betting odds?
  • How does Sports Arbitrage betting work?
  • How Sports Betting works
  • An Introduction to Sports Spread Betting


    • Written by Bet123 · Filed Under Other Sports Betting 

    Comments

    2 Responses to “A Look at Sports Betting systems”

    1. graham grocott on March 3rd, 2009 10:15 pm

      does anyone know how many 4 timers & 5 timers there are in 16 selections, would be grateful if anyone could help me, thanks a lot.

    2. Jon Dunning on June 12th, 2009 8:19 am

      Graham,

      I believe it’s 1820 4-timers and 4368 5-timers.

      Regards,
      Jon.

    Got something to say?