Locking in profits backing and laying Faves

Betfair-Back-Lay-ScreenshotWhy is it sometimes when the obvious happens people bet even heavier on the outcome than they could have before the race had started?

If you can find favourites in flat races over distances of a mile plus, you have a likely winning trade if the horse in question has won his last race (or even better his last two) when he has taken a clear early lead. You are looking for races where the favourite is 2/1 or bigger and there is no other horse in the race who might also be a front-runner and take on the favourite.

You are looking for races where the favourite is almost certain to lead. When you find these races it is a traders dream as an extraordinary thing happens in running. A 2/1 favourite who is 99% sure to lead will be layable at 6/4 when surprise, surprise he is in the lead after two furlongs.

So the tactics are simple. Back at 2/1 pre race and lay when they have gone two furlongs e.g back £200 at 2/1 lay £250 in running at 6/4 If the horse goes off too fast and falls apart late on you have already laid for a profit. If it strides clear then you win as well as long as you are not too greedy and wait too long.

To identify the horses you are looking for simply look at all favourites who are 2/1 or bigger go through them and highlight the ones who have won their last one or two races going clear and making all the running. Once you have found these types you then look at the other runners in the race now you are looking for horses that could potentially challenge the front running favourite early on.

If you can find races where the whole field except for the favourite like to be held up for a late run then it will be almost a 100% chance the favourite will lead. In this case the back before the race is pretty safe because once a favourite takes an early lead the crowd will almost by reflex shorten it up in running. The bigger the price the certain front running favourite starts the more room for trading you have.

So if you find a 4/1 favourite who you think is 100% sure to lead then after 2 furlongs when it is 5l clear it will be around 2/1 in running. Be cautious though if a favourite drops in distance, a horse that has lead all the way over 1m 4f might face much speedier rivals when dropped back to 9f and may find he has to battle for the lead over a shorter distance going up in distance can also be a spanner in the works.

A horse might make all over 1m 4f but the trainer might think that it has stamina doubts and when they run it over 1m6f instruct the jockey to go steady so if the race is more than a furlong different to when the horse tried to make all, don’t play.

About the author: DSCN0002 (1)After working for two of the major high street bookmakers, Peter Walker used the knowledge he gained to work as an independent Arber and Trader, where he had three very good years making tasty profits. His success didn’t go unnoticed and all of his betting accounts are now restricted to very low limits.

He has turned his attention to ownership, and has been involved in syndicate management for more than ten years, having great success with the likes of Blue Noodles and Oniz Tiptoes. Peter now manages the FRT Racing Club.

Peter will be sharing some of his trading secrets with us every month. If you have any questions or queries about these tactics or any other racing issues please feel free to e-mail Peter at peterwalkerracing@hotmail.com