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Royal Ascot Betting Wednesday June 18th

WEDNESDAY’S RACING AT ROYAL ASCOT – 18th June
2:30 Jersey Stakes, Group 3, 3yo, 7f

Traditionally viewed as an easier option for Guineas “also-rans” but only two Classic challengers have won since 1994. Jeremy Noseda and Sir Michael Stoute have both won the race twice in the last 10 runnings. Stoute is not represented, but Noseda runs Strike The Deal, ridden by Ryan Moore (16.5/1 on Betfair), in a seemingly open race. He failed to stay the mile trip of the 2000 Guineas and should not be completely dismissed. Ireland have only one win since 1975, but Aidan O’Brien’s Jupiter Pluvius is likely to be vying for favouritism (5.6/1 on Betfair). Hughie Morrison’s Stimulation (7.2/1 with Betfair) is expected to go well.
3:05 Windsor Forest Stakes, Group 2, 4yo+ fillies, 1m

As part of a programme aimed at keeping top-class fillies in training at the age of four, this race was first run in 2004. Winning trainers have been James Fanshawe, John Gosden and Sir Michael Stoute (twice). 3 out of 4 winners were four-year-olds (Soviet Song, the 2006 winner was a 6-year-old), and two have been owned by the Cheveley Park Stud. Unfortunately, this year’s renewal looks a little substandard, though the presence of Mick Channon’s Group 1 winner Majestic Roi helps add some class to the event. Stoute must have every chance of improving Cheveley Park’s record in the race, with likely favourite Heaven Sent (2.85/1 with Betfair). Alain De Royer Dupre’s Group-winning French raider Sabana Perdida looks the main danger (4/8/1 with Betfair).
3:45 Prince of Wales’ Stakes, Group 1, 4yo+, 1m 2f

The recent “roll of honour” is befitting of a true championship event. It is a prize for the “home” team, with only two foreign raiders, one each from Ireland and France escaping with the trophy, in the last 25 renewals. Aidan O’Brien must have every chance of breaking his duck as he saddles Duke of Marmalade (7/4 fav with Stan James). Winner of a Longchamp Group 1 contest, on easy ground, on his seasonal reappearance in April, and followed up by beating a rejuvenated Finsceal Beo in the Tattersall’s Gold Cup at the Curragh. May prove to be a 12f horse in time, but seems sure to take all the beating here. Stablemate Red Rock Canyon, a Group 3 performer in his own right, acted as pacemaker at the Curragh, and does so again here.
Challengers worthy of note include Henry Cecil’s Phoenix Tower, a best-priced 5/1 with Paddy Power. A progressive sort, he improved to be runner-up in Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes over a mile. The step up in trip seems sure to suit. Tuesday’s Queen Anne Stakes will give an indication as to the strength of the Newbury form. Multiple previous winning trainer, Saeed Bin Suroor relies on Literato (16/1 with totesport), the mount of Frankie Dettori. Winner of the Group 1 Emirates Airline Champion Stakes last year, his two performances this season have been dire and he is best left alone for the time being. Jeremy Noseda’s Sixties Icon showed a welcome return to form at Goodwood, having been treated for a wind problem which caused him to lose his way in 2007. He should not be dismissed lightly and, at 12/1 with 888sport represents decent each-way value. Sir Michael Stoute relies on Ask, best-priced at 8/1 with Paddy Power. Twice a Group 3 winner, he was only beaten a nose in the Canadian Grade1 International last year. Given his trainer’s Group race record, he has to be on the shortlist here.
4:20 Royal Hunt Cup, Handicap, 3yo+, 1m

A 30-runner “cavalry charge” which remains a firm favourite with punters. The last 48 renewals have been one by 29 four-year-olds, 13 five-year-olds, 5 six-year-olds and a sole seven-year-old. In this period, only 6 winners have carried more than 9 stone. Luca Cumani fields the favourite, in the shape of dual course and distance winner Bankable. He recently won a Goodwood Listed race in the style of a Group horse, and, on paper looks a good thing. However, Listed race form is renowned for not translating to handicaps and at a best-priced 7/4 with Paddy Power, he represents no value, especially as he may find the ground a little on the fast side. Michael Jarvis’ huge colt We’ll Come ran a superb trial on his seasonal reappearance in the 7f Victoria Cup at Ascot. He travelled smoothly throughout, but did not respond instantly when asked for an effort, though continuing to edge closer. His ungainly head carriage is marginally offputting, but at a best-priced 9/1 with Stan James, appears the value bet in the race. With several bookmakers offering each-way terms of 5 places, a moderate investment is thoroughly recommended.
4:55 Queen Mary Stakes, Group 2, 2yo fillies, 5f

This juvenile fillies’ race is not renowned for producing Classic winners, but has proved to be a valuable guide to Group 1 juvenile races later in the season. It has tended to be another “home team” benefit race, though Irish trainers overall modest strike rate has been compensated for by wins for Damson (trained by David Wachman) and Elletelle (Ger Lyons) in the last 4 renewals. Richard Hannon and Mick Channon are the trainers to note, having collected 6 of the last 16 runnings between them. Hannon is doubly represented this time, by Baileys Cacao, the mount of Richard Hughes, (5.4/1 with Betfair) and Rebecca De Winter, interestingly, ridden by Ryan Moore (8.6/1 with Betfair). Channon fields Lucky Leigh with Darryl Holland in the plate (12/1 with Betfair).
5:30 Sandringham Stakes, Listed Handicap, 3yo fillies, 1m

There is little to go on in the way of statistics, as the race has only been in existence since 2002. The six runnings to date have seen six different winning trainers, with David Elsworth, Michael Bell, John Oxx, Michael Jarvis, Ed Dunlop and John Dunlop sending out the winners. The race has been won by progressive types, with three of the six winners enjoying subsequent Group race success. It has also been a race for surprises with the winners’ starting prices being 16/1, 5/1 co-favourite, 9/2, 11/1, 11/1 and 12/1. Michael Jarvis’ Makaaseb seems likely to start favourite (3.3/1 on Betfair) having been a close-up 4th in a York Listed race on her reappearance. The fact that John Joseph Murphy chooses to travel from Ireland with improving maiden Pretty Ballerina is intriguing, especially as she will have to race from 4lb “wrong” in the weights. She has plenty to find at the weights, but is likely to start as a big outsider (currently 24/1 with Betfair) and a “just in case” minimum stake each-way investment seems sensible.

All odds correct at time of writing. Please click here for the latest odds