England v New Zealand Second Test betting preview
April 17, 2008
CRICKET – May 27-31 – Old Trafford – Second npower Test – England v. New Zealand
HISTORY
New Zealand’s First Test Win in England (Nearly!)
At Trent Bridge in 1973, the New Zealand first innings total of less than 100 (97) was viewed as unremarkable. The visitors had not won against England in over 40 years and everything appeared to be going to plan. Batting fourth, needing 479 for a remarkable win, New Zealand were 16 for 2, and lost another 2 wickets for a further 100, bringing captain Bev Congdon to the crease. Both he and Vic Pollard made centuries, 176 and 116 respectively. New Zealand was eventually bowled out for 440, some 39 runs short. John Arlott wrote in the Guardian, “Never before in Test cricket have one of the lesser powers forced their way up from humiliation to come so close to beating a major country.” Nonetheless, New Zealand still had to wait another ten years for their first win in England.
First Series Win in England
An eight-wicket victory in the second test at Trent Bridge, Nottingham, in August 1986 gave New Zealand a 1–0 series win, their first on English soil. Richard Hadlee, who played county cricket for Nottinghamshire was effectively at his second home. His familiarity with the surroundings certainly showed, with him returning match figures of 10 wickets for 140 runs, and scoring 68 (he only batted once).
ENGLAND v. NEW ZEALAND TODAY
New Zealand Cricket will take a decision soon on whether to allow the five players who have joined the Indian Premier League to miss the start of the England tour. Daniel Vettori, Kyle Mills, Brendon McCullum, Jacob Oram and Ross Taylor will be playing in the Indian League, starting on 18th April. However, New Zealand’s tour of England starts with a warm-up match against the MCC on April 27, followed by two three-day games in early May before the first Test on May 15. The players are of the opinion that missing a few practice matches won’t matter as New Zealand rarely play warm-ups on their tours. New Zealand captain, Vettori said the players would abide by whatever decision the board came to but made it clear what he would prefer. Vettori’s comments were, “Like I’ve said a couple of times, we go away on most tours and don’t have any warm-up games. I don’t think we can say that we all need to turn up all on the same day because that’s the way it’s supposed to be, because we don’t do it on any other tour.”
New Zealand’s squad for the England tour is expected to be announced on April 10.
BETTING ON ENGLAND v. NEW ZEALAND
Successful online betting on Test Cricket involves following certain “rules.”
Following these rules gives the dual benefits of providing long-term profits and reducing risk / outlay.
Bet Early on in a Match
Having formed an opinion of a match, the best value bets can be had during the first innings, when the three possible outcomes are still “live.” Additionally, if the run of play starts to go wrong, there is time available for “getting out.”
Bet “In-running”
Very often, a punter’s opinion will agree with that of the online layers, i.e. they wish to back the favourite. The odds on offer at the start of the match reflect that this team will win the match. However, it is very rare that the favourites get off to such a “flying start” that the chance to “get on” at a bigger price (than pre-match) does not present itself.
Observe the Flow of Money
For the first couple of days of a 5-day Test match, value bets can often be had by backing the team that has eased from its pre-match price. Obviously, the state of play at the time is important, but, over the course of fifteen sessions, momentum will “ebb and flow” many times. “Following the money” rarely provides value bets.
Bet on “Result” matches
In Test matches, the draw can account for anything up to half of the market during the first couple of days. Study the teams and pitches that are most likely to produce a winning result. Certain teams and pitches produce very few draws, so backing winning results when these combinations occur can produce some great value bets. Taking all Test matches played between England and New Zealand (in England) into consideration, a winning result has been achieved in just under 73% of the games. It is worth noting, however, that the statistics are massively in the home side’s favour.
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