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Olympic Games Betting: Bet on the 2008 Beijing Olympics
August 6, 2008
OLYMPIC GAMES BETTING - BET ON THE 2008 BEIJING OLYMPICS
The 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing gets underway with the opening ceremony at approx. 12.30 p.m. BST on Friday 8th August.
Most Medals
The battle to gain the most medals in Beijing is likely to be a closely-fought affair between China (4/5 with Bet 365) and the USA (Evens with 365). Russia is third best at 16/1 with the same firm. China (4/9 with Bet365) is fancied to have a better gold medal count than the USA (19/10 with sportingbet). Russia has little chance of achieving most golds and is priced at 50/1 with the same firm. Britain are 4/6 with Ladbrokes to win 11 or more gold medals, and 5/4 with Bet 365 to win less than 11 golds.
Bet365 offer 4/7 about Britain gaining 33 or more medals of any sort and 5/4 about 32 or less. There is obviously a vast array of betting opportunities available on the Beijing Olympics. It is recommended that punters use an “odds comparison” site such as searchum.bestbetting.com in order to avail themselves of the best prices available from the various online layers. Most punters will probably be interested in events involving British competitors. The following seeks to highlight the best British medal contenders in Beijing.
BRITISH MEDAL HOPES
Athletics
Philips Idowu - Men’s Triple Jump
Having spent much of his career in the shadow of Jonathan Edwards, Idowu, 29, is the current Commonwealth Games champion, and World and European Indoor champion and Team GB’s best hope for gold in the athletics arena. He jumped 17.58 metres, the furthest in the world this year, in July’s trials and is a best-priced 7/4 favourite with vcbet.
Paula Radcliffe - Women’s Marathon
Radcliffe would be Britain’s best bet for gold were it not for a stress fracture in her left thigh, which has reduced her chances even of competing in Beijing. However, she is determined to take part and has until the 17August to regain fitness. Paula Radcliffe has never won an Olympic medal in 3 visits to the games and is a 6/1 chance with William Hill.
Heptathlon - Kelly Sotherton
With Jessica Ennis injured, Sotherton is Britain’s only hope in the heptathlon, which combines 100m hurdles, high jump, shot put, 200m, long jump, javelin and 800m. With defending champion, Swede Carolina Kluft, absent, Sotherton must be considered for a medal. (8/1 with William Hill).
Women’s 400m
Christine Ohuruogu
Ohuruogu received a year’s ban in 2006, for missing three out-of-competition drugs tests. However, within 24 days of the end of her suspension won the gold medal at the 2007 World Championships. Succeeded in having a lifetime Olympic participation ban overturned and takes part in her second Games after reaching the semi-finals in Athens. Must have every chance of at least reaching the podium. (14/1 with Paddy Power).
Nicola Sanders
Sanders, 25, switched from the 400m hurdles to the flat in 2006, partly as a result of injuries. Her decision proved a good one when she claimed world silver in Osaka last year, behind GB team-mate Christine Ohuruogu. A niggling injury prevented her from running at July’s trials, but if fit she has a good chance of a medal. (40/1 with William Hill).
Men’s 400m
The men’s 400m has been contested on 26 occasions with the USA winning an astounding 19 gold medals, 12 silver and 10 bronze, and those totals should increase in Beijing. Jeremy Wariner (4/7 with totesport) is the reigning world and Olympic champion, ranked no.1 in the world the last four years. He posted the fastest time in the world this year of 43.98 seconds in Oslo on June 6. The only real threat is likely to come from team-mate LaShawn Merritt (2/1 with Ladbrokes), who beat him in Berlin, clocking 44.03 seconds, the second-fastest time this season. However Briton Martyn Rooney (75/1 with Bet 365), a sub-45 second performer, who is unbeaten this season, is likely to be involved in the battle for the bronze medal.
Triathlon
Britain’s 2006 world champion, Tim Don, can count himself fortunate that he had a lifetime Olympic ban overturned by the British Olympic Association after missing three out-of-competition drugs tests (16/1 with William Hill). However, recently-crowned world champion Helen Tucker has a chance of taking home triathlon gold (10/1 with William Hill).
Rowing
Britain fields a 43-strong rowing team rowing team, with high hopes of collecting medals in Beijing. Britain has set a target of just four medals in Beijing with entries in 13 of the 14 events. However as many as nine, or even more, seems a definite possibility.
The lightweight men’s double (7/4 behind 6/4 favourites Denmark), women’s quadruple scull (6/4 favourites) and men’s coxless four (6/4 favourites) are believed to be the strongest competitors for gold in Beijing. However, other rowers have every chance of collecting gold:
1. The men’s double scull are third-best at 11/4, behind 6/4 favourites and 9/4 second-best Slovenia.
2. The men’s eight are 3/1 second-best behind 5/4 favourites Canada.
3. The men’s lightweight four are 7/4 favourites (all prices from skybet).
Several of the other British boats, while not as well fancied in the betting markets, are likely to be in the shake-up so a bumper medal haul is quite possible.
Cycling
Britain’s cycling team aims for six Olympic medals at the forthcoming Beijing Games. On the team are veterans from the 2004 Athens Olympic Games, namely, men’s kilo gold medallist Chris Hoy, (Evs favourite with William Hill to win the Individual Sprint), men’s individual pursuit winner Bradley Wiggins, and silver medallists for men’s team pursuit Bradley Wiggins, Steve Cummings, Chris Newton and Paul Manning. Britain are 1/3 favourites with Ladbrokes to take the Team Pursuit gold, and only 3/1 second-best (with Paddy Power behind 4/6 favourites France (with William Hill) in the Team Sprint. The cycling team had a remarkable performance during the World Track Championships this year in Manchester, snatching gold in eight events altogether. This year, BMX will be first introduced to the Beijing Olympics. The British team has the world’s gold medallist of the 2008 World BMX Championships for the elite women, Shanaze Reade, 4/7 favourite to win gold in Beijing, while triple world champion, Victoria Pendleton, is 5/6 favourite to win the women’s individual sprint. Another worthwhile medal haul seems on the cards.
Boxing
Joe Murray, 51-54kg.
The newcomer burst onto the scene in 2007 at the AIBA World Boxing Championship, claiming the bronze medal after beating the commonwealth gold medallist to get to the semi-final. The tenacious lad from Mosside could well pick up a medal (33/1 with Paddy Power)
Frankie Gavin, 57-60kg
World Amateur Champion 2007 beating Italy’s Domenico Valentino impressively with an 18-10 victory in the final. Gavin is also reigning Commonwealth Champion and was named the 2007 BOA Olympic boxing athlete of the year. Probably Britain’s best chance of a boxing gold. (5/2 with Paddy Power)
Tony Jeffries, 75-81kg
Quarter finalist in the 2007 AIBA World Boxing Championships and at the 2006 Commonwealth Games, losing to the eventual champion Kenny Anderson (Sco). Twice schoolboy national champion, Jeffries hasn’t really achieved what his earlier days promised. Has possibilities of a bronze (or even better!) 80/1 with Ladbrokes.
Bradley Saunders, 60-64kg
The light-welterweight claimed bronze at the AIBA World Boxing Championship beating Alexis Vastine of France 30-13 in the quarter-finals, to set up his semi-final which he lost 16-8 to Gennady Kovalev of Russia. He had an impressive win in the first AIBA presidents’ cup in May 2008 and has worked hard to improve his form. Definite medal prospect (25/1 with Paddy Power).
All odds correct at time of writing. Please click here for the latest odds
www.thesun.co.uk/olympics - Click for the Latest News from Beijing
July 28, 2008
www.thesun.co.uk/olympics brings you all the latest news from the 2008 Beijing Olympics - to see the latest news, please click here.
British Hopes are high for the 2008 Olympics, from 14 year old diving prodigy Tom Daley, to veterans such as Paula Radcliffe in the marathon. Click here to see the latest odds for all the olympic events, or join Ladbrokes to get £25 of Free Bets (Terms apply - see the website for full details).
British athletes will be hoping to notch up a fair level of Gold medals in the final olympic games before London 2012 - For many athletes, this is the “warm-up” games, where they will be looking to peak in four years on home soil.
Speedway World Cup Betting
July 8, 2008
2008 Speedway World Cup Betting
The 2008 Speedway World Cup really gets underway with the Semi-finals starting in Leszno, Poland on Saturday and coming to the Brandon Stadium in Coventry, UK on the 14th July, as the tension builds towards the Final in Vojens, Denmark on Saturday the 19th July. Denmark are the strong favourites to win the Speedway World Cup on home soil, with odds of just 1/2 from skybet. Their nearest challengers (at least as far as the betting odds for the Speedway World Cup go) are Australia with skybet offering 3/1 for the Aussies to triumph. Poland are 5/1 with Stan James, and British Hopes appear to be fading, with huge odds of 25/1 availablke from both skybet and Stan James for the British Team to win the 2008 Speedway World Cup. Sweden are bringing up the rear of the realistic contenders with odds of 28/1 (sportingbet). skybet will take your money on Czech Republic (750/1), Russia (750/1) and Hungary (1,000/1).
Semi Final Betting - All the following odds are provided by skybet
Home team Poland (8/13) and Australia (6/5) should safely progress through the first semi-final at Leszno at the expense of Russia (250/1) and Hungary (750/1), whilst at the second semi-final in Coventry, it should be a three-way competition to progress, with Denmark being 1/3 favourites, followed by Great Britain (3/1) and Sweden (7/1). The Czech Republic are widely expected to bring up the rear with odds of 300/1. Please note that all odds are to win the event, not just to progress through to the finals in Denmark.
The Speedway World Cup has been held for eight years now, and has been won by four different nations so far - Australia, Sweden and last year’s winners Poland have all won the Speedway World Cup twice, with this year’s favourites Denmark having won in 2006, they are hoping to make it two wins this year. With the exception of the very first World Cup, Denmark have finished in the top 3 every year.
The whole of the Speedway World Cup will be shown live on Sky Sports 3 (Channel 403 on Sky) from 6pm on Saturday 12th July, and betting will be available both before the races, and also in-play (or in running) via skybet.
All odds correct at time of writing. Please click here for the latest odds
Tour de France Betting - Bet on the winner of the Tour de France
June 30, 2008
TOUR DE FRANCE BETTING - BET ON THE WINNER OF THE TOUR DE FRANCE
Taking place between Saturday 5th July and Sunday 27th July, the 95th Tour de France consists of twenty-one stages, covering a total distance of some 3500 kilometres (close on 2200 miles). The stages are divided into 10 flat, 5 mountain, 4 medium mountain and 2 time trial stages. A total of 20 teams, each of nine riders, make up the 180 riders lining up in the 2008 Tour.
Teams and Riders
France are represented by 6 teams, Spain 3, Belgium, Italy, Germany and the US by 2 each, with Britain, Denmark and Holland each fielding a single representative team.
Leading Contenders
Silence-Lotto
The Australian connection is the key to this Belgian team. Cadel Evans is one of top contenders for the overall victory (5/2 with Ladbrokes to win the Tour). He’s one of the best triallists and well able to compete in the mountains. Ukrainian Yaroslav Popovych provides good support (6/4 for a top 10 finish with 888sport).
Caisse d’Epargne
Spanish team Caisse d’Epargne has a very real contender for the Tour, in the shape of Alejandro Valverde (9/2 with Stan James). Valverde is obviously in form having won the Dauphiné Libéré earlier this month. The Caisse d’Epargne team leader decided that the extremes of this year’s Tour required special preparation at high altitudes and has been preparing by way of an altitude training camp at in the Sierra Nevada mountains in Andalucía, Spain. The remainder of the team is very strong, including 2006 winner (by default) Oscar Pereiro (Evs with 888sport for a top-10 finish).
Lampre
The Italian outfit includes the promising Damiano Cunego (14/1 with Ladbrokes to win the Tour) who is a leading contender, though probably looking at a podium finish at best. (888sport offer 3/1 for a top-3 finish and 2/5 for a top-10).
Rabobank
The Dutch team will be looking to put the 2007 disqualification of Tour leader Michael Rasmussen behind them. They have a live contender for the overall win with Russian Denis Menchov, rated a 7/1 chance with Stan James to win the Tour and 6/4 with 888sport for a podium finish.
CSC-Saxo Bank
Though CSC-Saxo bank team is not the dominant force it once was, this Danish team still merits plenty of respect. Injury-prone Spaniard Carlos Sastre is one of the top climbers and is only a 14/1 chance with Paddy Power for the overall Tour win. Andy and Frank Schleck of Luxembourg are both capable of performing well and rate as 12/1 and 40/1 chances, respectively, with Stan James. Swiss Fabian Cancellara is a specialist in time trials, so is likely to have the yellow jersey for a while. However, his chances of retaining it at the finish are remote; his chances of a top-10 finish being rated at 33/1 with 888sport.
Barloworld
The sole British team includes Juan Mauricio Soler, probably the strongest climber in the field, who looks a decent bet for the “King of the Mountains.” He gets a 25/1 quote from vcbet for the overall win and is 9/10 with 888sport to finish in the top 10. Robert Hunter, of South Africa, is the team’s sprint specialist, but seems unlikely to gain the green jersey, 888sport rating him a 12/1 chance to do so. Britain’s Chris Froome may also form part of the line-up.
Saunier Duval-Scott
After failing to win the Giro, Italian Riccardo Ricco will be out to prove his credentials. 33/1 with skybet for the overall win, 888sport’s offer of Evens for a top-10 finish seems the more sensible option. Spanish team-mate Juan Jose Cobo is a 3/1 chance with 888sport for an overall top-10 finish.
Quick Step-Innergetic
Key riders: Gert Steegmans (Bel), Stijn Devolder (Bel)
2007 green jersey winner Tom Boonen is banned from the Tour after testing positive for cocaine. As a result, Gert Steegmans is handed the responsibility for the Belgian team’s points ambitions. However, his chances of repeating Boonen’s feat do not look promising, earning a 22/1 quote from 888sport.
Team-mate Stijn Devolder is likely to perform well in the quest for the overall win (33/1 with Stan James)
Of the remainder, Dane Thor Hushovd, of the Credit Agricole team, will also be seeking to grab the green jersey and is a 9/5 chance with 888sport to do so. The Columbia team’s British sprint star Mark Cavendish (14/1 for the green jersey with skybet) will be seeking to add some Tour stage wins to his impressive list of accomplishments. Milram’s veteran German sprinter Erik Zabel (10/1 with skybet) must have a chance of some stage wins, but is in the twilight of his career and likely to retire following the tour. For the overall win, Christophe Moreau is France’s great hope (80/1 with Paddy Power), but his unreliable form means he either performs brilliantly or dismally.
All odds correct at time of writing. Please click here for the latest odds
How do Betting Odds work?
June 29, 2008
HOW DO BETTING ODDS WORK?
The Basics
The book percentage (or “overround”) is defined by the Racing Post as the “sum of the quoted probabilities across all horses in a race”. The bookmakers assign each horse a probability of winning, represented by its odds. The percentage of the “book” represented by particular odds can be calculated by adding one to the odds and dividing the resultant figure into 100. For example:
Evens: 100 / (1+1) = 50%
2/1: 100 / (2+1) = 33.33%
3/1: 100 / (3+1) = 25%
4/1: 100 / (4+1) = 20%, etc.
Simplistically, the overround is indicates the bookmaker’s profitability on a race. If an overround is 125%, then the bookmaker can expect to make a profit of 20% (25/125). However, this profit percentage is dependent on each horse being laid for an amount proportional to their contribution to the total book. For the sake of clarity and simplicity, suppose there is a 5-horse race, in which each competitor has an equal winning chance. In a “fair” market, each would be priced at 4/1, so a bookmaker taking bets of £20 on each horse would have a perfectly matched book. Regardless of the result, he has taken £100 on the race and must pay out £100 on the winner, so cannot lose. However, neither can he win.
In a real racing scenario, it is far more likely that the prices are likely to be, say, 6/4, 2/1, 3/1, 4/1and 7/1. In this case, if the bookie takes bets equal to each horse’s contribution to the book percentage, he would like to accept bets of £40 on the 6/4 favourite, £33.33 on the 2/1 chance, £25 at 3/1, £20 at 4/1 and £12.50 at 7/1. In this case, the book overround is 130.83%. The layer’s maximum liability is still £100, but has generated turnover of £130.83.A cursory examination appears to indicate that making money from laying horses is a straightforward process. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
As can be seen, the overround concept depends on a perfectly evenly matched book. In reality, this evenness of match is never achieved and the reported “overround” is very often a poor indication of the state of the betting market.
Favourite-Outsider Bias
The “favourite-outsider bias” also distorts the book as a true reflection of the market. It is often impossible to lay some horses, irrespective of the odds offered, whether they are 20/1 or 200/1. However, when pricing up a race, bookmakers tend to be cautious as there are plenty of shrewd gambling stables, who like to go for a “touch” if their horse is overpriced. Punters wishing to back outsiders will often, for some unfathomable reason, be as likely to accept 16/1 as 33/1 about their selection. This allows the layer to limit his potential liability on the longer-priced horse, without unduly compromising turnover on the race. The “favourite-outsider bias” can be further demonstrated using the previous 5-horse example.
The overround was 130.83%, including the 3 outsiders. Suppose that the actual price of the outsiders should be bigger, say, 5/1, 7/1 and 12/1. Using a total liability of £100 for convenience, the bets required are £40 at 6/4, £33.33 at 2/1 £16.66 at 5/1, £12.50 at 7/1 and £7.69 at 12/1, giving an overround of 110% (109.85%).The punter should be aware that value prices are often found with the more fancied horses, as the odds are not unduly biased.
For this reason, it is common for outsiders to trade at much higher prices on the betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq than with the fixed-odds layers such as Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler, William Hill, Blue Square etc. Betfair layers are laying one horse, not a full book, so in order to find a backer, they need to offer unbiased odds.
Practical Bookmaking
Successful bookmaking requires skill and judgment. There is far more to the bookmaker’s art than setting what appear to be unfavourable odds and reaping the rewards from “mug” punters. In many cases, not only will a layer be unable to achieve an even book, but will fail to lay some of the horses at all. Using the original 5-horse example, suppose he lays the favourite, second-favourite and one of the 4/1 outsiders. This leaves the bookmaker in the unenviable position of having a liability of £100 against a turnover of £93.33.
In practical situations, far more extreme market behaviour is commonplace, especially in non-handicap races with large fields. In large fields, of maidens, in particular, on many occasions punters wish to back only the first two or three in the market. This leaves the overall book in a vulnerable state, and a profit or loss on such races is subject to the individual layer’s skill and judgement. A bookmaker may consider one of the fancied horses vulnerable in some way, and set out to “get” that horse by laying it at a shade of odds better that his fellow layers.
If such a ploy is successful, he is likely to make a profit, but conversely sets himself up for a financial battering if the horse wins. Despite reported overrounds of approaching 200% in such races, the layer is essentially running a “judgement” book, a decidedly risky process.
Hopefully, the above discussion will aid punters’ understanding of the difficulties encountered in the art of laying horses and encourage them to put down the big stick, with which they continually beat layers over the perceived lack of value in betting markets.
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